The recent August jobs report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics found that the U.S. added 22,000 jobs last month, far below the forecasted 75,000. The 38,000 jobs added by the private sector were offset by the 16,000 jobs lost by the government. The unemployment rate rose to 4.3%, the highest rate since 2021, according to CNN.
New data recently released also showed that the job market was weaker than reported, with about 911,000 fewer jobs added in 2024 and 2025 than previously reported. While these revisions are published every year, these happen to be the biggest on record.
There is some good news that came from the latest reports: hospitality demonstrated the second strongest sector, and it’s almost a given that the Fed will cut its benchmark rate at its September 17 meeting. Economists polled by FactSet project the probability of a 0.25 percentage point rate cut at 94%, as reported by CBS News.
Restaurant Jobs
Eating and drinking establishments added 11,000 jobs in August, a clear half of those added by the overall U.S. economy.
While a positive sign, the slowing job market can lead to a decrease in discretionary spending and have a direct impact on restaurants. The good news from a recent study by Epsilon is that guests plan to continue dining out as much, if not more, than usual.
Guests’ Behavior
According to their findings, over 50% of those surveyed plan on going out to dinner as often as they do now. Gen Z leads the generations in dining out, going out to dinner an average of 4.1 times per month.
Interestingly, they also found that good service trumps price when selecting a restaurant. The top four factors for choosing a restaurant were great service, affordable pricing, convenience, and a wide variety of menu options. Over 60% chose a restaurant based on online reviews.
Modern Restaurant Management recently spoke with Gillian MacPherson, SVP, Products and Customer Insights at Epsilon. “…It’s encouraging to see a shift in consumer behavior, with more people eager to dine out rather than cut back. It seems like the cost increases over the past three years have finally been accepted as the new reality.”
Restaurant Operations and the Broader Economy
Every shift in the market tends to affect the restaurant industry. So, what are operators doing in this current environment to weather the headwinds?
Crunchtime Information Systems, Inc. recently conducted a nationwide survey of over 300 multi-unit restaurant operators in partnership with Technomic. The 2025 Restaurant Growth Insights Report found that restaurant operators are still on the growth trajectory despite economic headwinds, with operators planning, on average, to open 20% more new locations in the next two years than they did in the last two.
Interestingly, this planned expansion comes at a time when 75% say that growth is harder to achieve. Additionally, inaccurate forecasts, off by 40%, are negatively impacting profitability.
No matter if you’re an independent operator or a multi-unit chain, understanding the shifting market is critical to maximizing value and expanding in a manner that reduces risks.
At Emerging Concepts, our team of data scientists, engineers, analysts, real estate experts, and restaurant professionals helps restaurants and entertainment concepts develop plans, identify problems, and seize opportunities, supporting them in achieving their long- and short-term goals in a way that maximizes profits and minimizes risks.
To learn more about our expansion process, from creating a market potential map to building a strategic growth plan, contact Emerging Concepts.